High-def DVD will take on significant market share. This prediction comes from Kagan Research, a research firm that just released its 11th edition of its “The State of Home Video.” The firm predicts that high-definition DVD will account for 18.3 billion in revenue by 2015.
Kagan estimates that, by the end of 2006, $16.9 billion in revenue will come from standard-definition DVD, but that by 2009 VHS will be virtually extinct and that high-definition DVD revenue may grow to more than $2.6 billion. But Kagan was quick to point out that it was not placing any bets on which format -- Blu-ray or HD DVD -- will win out, saying that the high-def market to which the report refers is based on either format declaring victory or a combination HD DVD/Blu-ray player being introduced to the market.
The firm, however, also predicted a cooling in the home video market. Kagan believes, the “boom times” are gone for the home video industry and that revenues will drop again in 2006, off 0.4 percent to $24.1 billion due to a decline in rental revenues, off 8.3 percent to $7.2 bil. However, sell-through revenue is estimated to grow 3.4 percent because of DVD revenue hitting $16.8 billion.