Economists: Housing Slowdown Not at Bottom Yet
The new-housing market slump has yet to bottom out – but new-home sales numbers should begin stabilizing by Q3, and see some slow growth in Q4, according to David F. Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), who presented his statistics on a panel during Day One of the group’s 2008 IBS (International Builders’ Show) yesterday in Orlando, Fla.
“The economy is in weak condition, and there is recession talk. In that context, the dramatic market contraction puts a heavy hit on economic activity including [housing] sales and production, with associated effects in the financing area,” he said, painting a picture of “very slow economic growth in the first half.” By 2009, he added, we should be “past the recession threat.”
Seiders added that the federal government’s economic stimulus package, once in effect, should prove a “significant, positive” factor in Q3 and Q4 but “could turn into a negative after that” due to its short-term nature. However, he added, “the vast bulk of housing contraction is behind us.”